Curse of Benitez

I sit and wonder all the time who prominent sports figures were in a past life. Today, I had an epiphany with respect to Melky Cabrera. Rather than get all wordy about it, I’m just going to present this photo of Melky from his tenure on the Yankees.

WHAAAAJAAAFAZZZZ

Now allow me to show you that douche who took everyone’s money from Press Your Luck.

No Whammies, you say? I had other plans.

I rest my case.

Ryan Vogelsong is going to be tendered a contract. There is very little doubt about that. He was a solid pitcher, putting up a 2.4 fWAR at the back of the rotation. Oh, and he can now always be referred to as “All-Star Pitcher Ryan Vogelsong”, in similar vain to “All-Star Outfielder Randy Winn.”

This article by Chris Haft on the Giants’ website suggests he could very well earn between $3.75m and $4.25m  on a one-year contract negotiated with the team versus MLB Trade Rumors’ $2.5m prediction. I’m fine with that. For one year. I honestly hope they go to arbitration if only because I’m not sure what comps Vogelsong’s agent is going to come up with to justify a higher salary.

I’m fine with tendering Vogelsong. With Sanchez traded and Zito’s and Surkamp’s ability questionable, a performance even remotely similar to last year is fine at the back of the rotation. What worries me about the article is the numbers thrown around by Haft for second and third years in a multi-year contract. With Sabean and the front office talking about how important our pitching is, our #1 pitching prospect traded to the Mets, and our best minor league pitcher probably being a reliever, I can easily see them wanting to negotiate an extension.

Vogelsong had not pitched in the majors since 2006 coming into 2011 and his 2.4 fWAR in ’11 raised his career to 2.6. He had a career high K/9 rate and a career low BB/9. This isn’t to say he hasn’t actually improved, but to do so in his 33-year old season, turning 35 after the 2012 all-star break, should point to not signing him to an excessive extension. His best pitch is his fastball which averages in the low 90s and comes in at a solidly above average pitch according to FanGraphs’ pitch values. His curveball was also slightly above average last year, with his other pitches ranking below average. Not sure how much stock you want to put into pitch values five years previous, but his curve was ranked as a bad pitch in his previous chances with the Pirates. His other secondary stuff isn’t so terrible that he can’t remain a rotation guy, but he has one pitch he can rely on and we’ll see how he does on his next go around.

Having absolutely no faith in the Giants’ front office right now, I would almost prefer they non-tender him, just so they can’t offer him an extension in the future. Assuming every point of WAR equals $4.5/5m, a similar performance this year makes Haft’s numbers seem accurate, but this isn’t the open market and we’d be paying those numbers to him through age 37. To be our fourth starter.

None of this would matter if it wasn’t for ownership’s artificial budget restrictions. Why pay Vogelsong mid to high 7 figures when the problem lies on the other side of the field? The easy answer for next year is “we need him in the rotation.” We probably do, barring a comeback by Zito or Surkamp settling down and gaining control. Another option would be for ownership to recognize that only winning will continue to bring out the crowds and generate the revenues that have created the so-called “rainy day fund.” Not to mention at least seeking out ways to tap into a market which extends far beyond the Bay Area itself.

We probably need Ryan Vogelsong next year. I want Ryan Vogelsong next year. Not the biggest fan, but he deserves a chance to follow up on his successful 2011. But the Giants may be better off in the future without keeping him, just so the brain trust doesn’t have the opportunity to do something stupid.

Wow. This one is a surprise — I’m not sure how Sabean kept it under wraps. Maybe he was holed up in Baer’s Jungle.

A source informed me that the Giants have signed former Royal Prince Charles to a 4 year, $42MM deal, with backend incentives that include genetic mutation therapy to counteract centuries of inbreeding.

Early indication is that he will be plugged into the lineup immediately

Largely attributed to the change in baseball rules, San Francisco squeezed out a win tonight against the Diamondbacks. Controversial commissioner Bud Selig quietly passed through a rule amendment that permits umpires to adjust “sympathy runs” onto the final score, dependent on the displayed futility of an offense. This handicapping system left the Giants benefactors tonight, ending in a 13-4 victory against a baffled Daniel Hudson.

With the 30th overall pick in the 2011 MLB Draft, the Minnesota Twins selected Levi Michael, shortstop from the University of North Carolina. One pick prior, 29th overall, the Giants selected Joe Panik, also a shortstop, from St. John’s University in New York. Michael was considered the top college SS in the draft by most outlets and considered likely to stick at the position as he developed. Opinion on Panik’s ability to stick was more iffy, with some suggesting a move to 2B would be necessary as he advanced through the minors. Panik bats left and Michael is a switch hitter.

I haven’t seen any real reasons given by the Giants front office about why they took Panik over Michael. There weren’t many–if any–cries of “bad pick” like last year with Gary Brown, though he wasn’t considered a 1st round lock (comp/2nd round.) Panik had a much better college season, putting up a slash line of .398/.509/.642 versus Michael’s .289/.384/.461. Michael had down year, but was still considered to have the better tools. The ACC is a better baseball conference than the Big East, but there’s not a big enough difference to explain the gap. Both exhibited above average SB skills and surface-level defensive stats give Michael the edge (FPCT: .969 vs .953.)

It’s entirely possible that “what have you done lately?” played into their eventual decision. Money doesn’t seem to have played a role, although Panik signed quickly and got his career going in the Northwest League with the Salem-Keizer Volcanoes. Michael got a higher bonus at $1.175m (Panik $1.116m) although he did not sign until deadline day and was not assigned to a minor league roster by the Twins.

I’m not a scout, but I did get to see Panik play a series of four games vs the Boise Hawks in early August. Unfortunately, I didn’t get to see much the first three games as he didn’t do much. He went 2-13 with no extra base hits, 2 strikeouts and a walk.  The last night he broke out with a 3-4 night including a double. He rarely made a bad swing and hit the ball solidly almost every at bat, often “right at” people. The “eye test” for four games means squat, but he didn’t show any flashy plays in the brief sample. He did bobble a few balls when making the transition from glove to throw.

There are three games to go in the Northwest League season, but Panik was just named MVP of the league, which is a good way to begin your career (even if you don’t care about awards.) His NWL slash line is .337/.399/.464 versus a league average .256/.334/.372. His wOBA comes out at a very good .400, with a wRC+ of 141. He had a reasonably high .345 BABIP and with a good K-rate of 8.4% he will need to hit more line drives if he wants to sustain an above .300 batting average. His walk rate stands at 9.5% which will hopefully rise above 10% as he develops.  He contributed to the best offense in the league, but due to the worst pitching in the league their playoff chances are slim (three out in the second-half with three to go.)  He’s 13/18 in SB attempts and has  a .963 fielding percentage with 12 errors in 68 games at SS. Considering some of the error totals players put up in the lower levels, he’s solid on the surface. The Northwest League is college heavy so he’s playing in the league you would expect, as well.

You rarely draft a surefire 2B in the first round with some exceptions (Ackley recently.) The Giants goal for him has to be to stay at SS if he can improve his defense and handle the position at the higher levels. With guys like Adrianza and Crawford who are locks defensively above him in the minors, he will need to keep up his bat to stay at the position. He’s already a better hitter than Adrianza and the ceilings for their bats don’t even compare. We will certainly want him to hit better than Crawford has shown in the majors and minors. The Giants have had…. “troubles” at the middle infield positions since Aurilia’s 2001 and Jeff Kent left after the 2002 World Series run. We’ve been satisfied with Freddie Sanchez’s production when he’s healthy, so the bar isn’t exactly set high if he’s forced to move to 2B.

We should start getting updates about Panik’s projections soon as the minor league seasons end and Baseball America and other outlets start releasing tools and prospects list. There are no guarantees with Panik. There are questions about both his defense and his bat. It seems unlikely he’ll make any top 100 prospect lists, but he should slot into the Giants list anywhere between #2 and #4 depending on how an individual feels about his future tools. Gary Brown is undoubtedly #1 and Panik will be in the discussion for #2 with Surkamp and Peguero. My own personal ranking of the four would go: Brown, Surkamp, Panik, Peguero.

Next year he is likely to be assigned to the San Jose Giants. Hopefully he will put up Gary Brown like numbers to cement his status as one of our top prospects. Making the jump into mid-season top 100 lists would also be pleasing to us as fans. Like most organizations, the Giants probably don’t care about his placement; they just want him to continue developing. The California League environment should allow him to put up solid offensive stats, which if nothing else, should allow him to build confidence and give the majority of fans reasons to dream.

Would we love him to turn into Dustin Pedroia? Jeff Kent? Sure. Is it likely? Of course not. He has a reasonable ceiling of being a high contact hitter with solid on-base skills. Once he’s on base he should be able to use his above average speed to steal bases at a solid rate–depending on the Giants’ manager’s preferences by the time he hits the majors. If he improves his ability to hit line drives it’ll allow him to put up a good number of doubles and possibly triples due to his speed and left-handed bat in AT&T Park. He probably won’t ever be much of a power hitter, his numbers will deflated even more due to the park. That projection is probably somewhere between the 75th and 90th percentile. The short-season at Salem-Keizer has undoubtedly made me think higher of his future than in June. But hey, I’m a Giants fan and admittedly not a scout. At the lower end, he could turn into a solid utility infielder, although that depends on his ability to play SS. A backup infielder who can only play 2B (unlikely to play 3B much due to his arm) isn’t very useful, not that it always stops the Giants as we’ve seen this year. People far better at judging tools than I will certainly be writing about him so we should get a better perspective of his future from scouts soon.  For now, his future appears bright. Cheesy jokes about his last name aside, a middle infielder who can hit for even league average is a good player to have. With the futures of C and CF hopefully in good hands, 2B/SS will complete the always-important middle of the diamond. Hopefully Joseph Panik will fill one of those positions in a few years.

(Panik can be heard on the Two Guys, a Glove and  a Coke Bottle Podcast here.)

(Crpls can be followed on Twitter at @Crpls. He can be emailed at crpls@cableone.net)

Step One: Turn on your TV/MLB.tv stream (unless you gots teh blackouts* hurr)/YE OLDE TIME RADIO

Step Two: Determine whether Bochy is wearing sunglasses on an overcast day/evening

Step Two-B: If yes, put on sunglasses yourself. Even if you’re inside. Especially if you’re inside. If no, put on your Rowand jersey (we all have them).

Step Three: Watch the game until the first run is scored.

Step Three-B: If the run is scored by the Giants, go to Step Four. If the run is scored by the opposition, skip to Step Seven.

Step Four: Watch the next half-inning. If the Giants’ starting pitcher is still in the game, proceed to Step Five. If a reliever is in the game, and they do not have a shutdown inning, skip to Step Seven. If a reliever is in the game, and they do have a shutdown inning, the world has exploded but proceed to Step Five.

Step Five: Wait for obligatory “pitching meltdown” which consists of any amount of runs conceded over zero. All it takes is one. Now skip to Step Seven.

Step Six: What, the Giants didn’t give up the lead or give up a single run that costs them the game?

Step Seven:

ENTER SNADMAIN

*This always bugs the shit out of me. If I am on a paid subscription to your services, frankly I don’t give a damn about your licensing agreement that puts MORE cash in your pocket to not let me watch what would be considered “local broadcast” territory, MLB. Double dipping is frowned upon.

It doesn’t take a paid analyst to observe that the Giants have exhibited fundamental deficiencies with respect to both getting on base and driving in runs. The solo home run stats over the past month, as well as the LOB stats not only game-to-game but over a long stretch of games are glaring.

However, lost in all this is the why.

Last night I interviewed a source within the Department of Defense, a lifelong Giants fan and season ticket holder, who wasted a metric asston of taxpayer money to abuse his clearance and analyze every iota of critical data available. What he found will shock you.

One of the primary groundskeepers, on payroll for over six seasons, has been working a deep cover that initially began with covert reconnaissance missions for the Los Angeles Dodgers — but their financial situation led to a black market auction for his services that resulted in the entire NL East forming an alliance to fund… you guessed it, baseball sabotage.

Though invisible to the naked eye, the groundskeeper in question has been planting leprosy-ridden limbs at all three bases during every middle of the inning. My exclusive photo captures these very items using technology so advanced, it exploded Al Gore’s internet when I tried to type an explanation.

In order to further their agenda, he has been leaving random pieces of literature about leprosy around the clubhouse. During a recent game, Aubrey Huff could be seen stroking his goatee obsessively, and I can now report that he was indeed concerned that during the brawl, he had contracted leprosy and may well lose his $11m goatee.

Click for greater detail

When approached for comment, only one Giant was willing to go on the record, confirming the allegations as well as providing insight into the team’s defense against the leprosy bases.

As you can see, their collective response is to don catcher’s gear regardless of their position. Only time will tell how this affects fielding statistics and abilities, but Bochy has provided me with another exclusive projected range of potentially returning SUPERVETERAN Miguel Tejada.

"Haelp me Keppz!"

Unfortunately, until the Giants learn that they cannot contract leprosy on the bases, or that by driving runs home they are not inviting leprosy into their actual homes [or clubhouse], they will only accidentally score runs in baseball games.

By now you are all aware that the Giants have won both games by a collective score of 37-6 lost the first two games in this series. Game three is a huge pitching matchup for both teams — a chance to look at what each respective starter has late in the year, against lineups that will much more closely resemble the playoff lineups than they did earlier in the season.

I am trying to place myself in each starter’s shoes, and where they must envision themselves in a zen moment on the hill, trying to isolate their mechanics and gameplan from the chaos surrounding them.

So, here is what I think Roy Oswalt and Tim Lincecum are thinking about as they drive the team bus, as it were.

FARMIN' FOR STRIKEOUTS REAL GUD

vs.

BLAZIN FIYAH RIGHT BY YA, BRUH

Later today I will be doing a live in-game grumble-core radio show with FMK that you can enjoy alongside the CSN broadcast, or download after the game. It might be great.