A few times a week, I am going to look at Giants games from a gambler’s perspective. One of the cardinal rules is to not bet on your team in either direction, as you inherently lack the perspective to procure any gainful insight. I tend to agree with this with respect to betting the Moneyline (ML) or Runline (RL), but there are numerous occasions in which I think betting team totals or the over/under is an acceptable practice.
It is worth prefacing this to say that:
- I have adopted the term degenerate endearingly, and rarely if ever bet over $5.00 on anything.
- This is by no means going to be advice on wagers, or any claim that what I say holds any weight whatsoever.
- The pure intent is to take a gambler’s eye to the game, more than to take a gambler’s intent to the game and make a wager.
8/16/11: SF Giants @ Atlanta Braves
- The Giants are a +120 road dog; the Braves are a -140 home favorite.
- The over/under is set at 8, even money on either bet.
- The Braves Runline of -1.5 is set at +155, while the Giants Runline of +1.5 is set at -175.
- 1st 5 Inning ML is identical at +120 and -140, with an o/u set at a very low – in my opinion – 4.5 runs.
- SF throws Sanchez on the mound; Atlanta stacks Top 10 Prospect Randall Delgado up against him.
- Sanchez hasn’t seen the 6th inning since June 12th against the Cubs, and hasn’t thrown 7 IP or more since the end of May.
- Since the beginning of June, he has shown consistency in going 4-5 IP and giving up 3-5 runs — and all but two of those starts were at home.
- Sanchez literally has a 1.0 K/BB ratio from June onward.
- Delgado’s one start at the big league level this year was back in June against the Rangers, throwing 60.5% of his 86 pitches for strikes in his 4+ IP.
- His two starts in AAA (leading up to this game) have been impressive: 13 IP, 0.85 WHIP, 15 K, 0 ER
- Feast or famine: Less than 5 IP in 7 of his 23 starts this year, but when he goes 7 IP or more (9 of 23 starts) he posts a 4.46 K/BB ratio.
- Not facing a stacked Rangers lineup. Can I say this twice? This SF lineup should much more closely resemble the squads he was pitted against in AAA this month.
- SF is 3-10 as a road dog of +125 to +150 this year.
- ATL is 14-5 as a home favorite of -125 to -150 this year.
- The o/u is 3-1 in the season series; the Braves are 4-0 against the ML in those games.
- When Sanchez throws against the Braves, the o/u is 6-1.
- At the time of this post, my sportsbook has no lines available for any 1st 5 Innings wagers, but I am going to hammer the 1st 5 over and 1st 5 ATL Moneyline. By hammer, I mean a $5 wager for each. BIG MONEY by my standards.
edit: the ML is at -140/+120, and o/u at 4.5 — I laid down this wager as expected, which is all I intend to do on this game today.
- Same goes for the team totals. I would expect to see the Braves team total around 4-4.5, Giants around 3-3.5 and honestly I would say the only bet there is the Braves over, depending on where it’s set. Wouldn’t touch the Giants team total because of the lineup impotency and unpredictability of which Randall Delgado is going to show up.
- For runlines and alt runlines, just stay away. This is a bad game to try to predict a 2+ run game.