Yesterday was all about the 1st 5 Innings wagers, to the tune of the following result:
Today there are some pretty nice moneyline angles. I’m not a huge fan of taking moneyline wagers straight-up that aren’t under (-150) or so, and today we’re presented with a couple opportunities to cut the price by utilizing a round robin wager.
Washington (-170) at Pittsburgh +150
Strasburg takes on Correia as the Nats visit the Pirates, with the current chalk on the Nats at (-170) at the time of post. The season is still young, but the Nats have won just a shave under 2/3 of their games where the runline is set at 7 or lower (14-8) and the Pirates are the relative opposite at a 1/3 clip (4-11). That is to say, when there is at least one starter expected to prove stingy with runs allowed (and let’s be honest, that’s rarely the Pirates’ starter) the Pirates rather predictably don’t fare well.
The Pirates have averaged 2.4 runs scored at home this year while allowing a respectable 3.0 runs per game. Additionally, the Nats have stifled opponents’ bats to the tune of 2.6 runs allowed per game on the road, so any sort of offensive production on Washington’s part should give Stras the all-meaningful 6th win of the season (I kid).
Toronto (-150) at Minnesota +130
Let me begin by saying that Jason Marquis is garbage. He is a perfect 4-0 in leading the Twins to hitting the over across his four starts this season, and somehow walked six Mariners in his last start just as a rather insignificantly fun fact. Henderson Alvarez blanked the Angels (in CA) in a complete game his last outing, and gave up two runs over 7 IP in his other road start at Baltimore.
I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that both LAA and BAL are on a very different level over the last few weeks than the Twins, who have been home underdogs for 8 of their 13 games at Target Field. Three of the Twins’ eight wins this season, however, have come after a rest day. So there is that. But you can’t ignore the 5.8 runs allowed per game at Target Field, and you can’t ignore the 1.9 runs scored per game over the last seven games, either.
I could go on and on about how mismatched this game is, but after all this is baseball and Josh Willingham might go 4-4 and hit 6 home runs while explicitly defying the rules of baseball, so who knows.
Tampa Bay +135 at New York (-155)
This one is a gamble, but not a bad one. For starters, you’re getting David Price as a freaking underdog. Oh, and there’s the fact that Tampa Bay has been one of the three best teams in baseball out the gates as well.
Both starters today are great, to the tune of a collective 9-1 record for their teams when they’ve started in 2012.
Both teams average out above their overall runs scored per game when facing lefties, with Tampa Bay scoring 4.8 per game (4.5 overall average) and New York scoring 5.7 per game (5.0 overall average).
Here’s where it gets dicey for this pick.
Price has averaged 5 IP per road start, and has given up 41% of his ER over the 28% of his overall IP that he tabulated on the road. However, he held Texas to 2 ER over 6 1/3 IP at the end of April which we know is quite a feat. It’s not like he isn’t used to facing dominant teams and producing a top tier performance.
Furthermore, the Tampa Bay bullpen is super shaky. I love their trash heap mentality and all that, but on the road they’ve allowed 33 ER in 35 1/3 IP and sport a fancy 1.925 WHIP. An 8.41 ERA is something Boston relievers might be happy with right now, but it’s far from encouraging.
Then again, this is gambling. I’m gambling on David Price going seven innings and allowing less than four runs, which should give the Rays ample opportunity to win a ballgame in New York.
Final Wager
